So what about that question? Is the Coronavirus (COVID-19) a hoax? Well, there are people using that expression. Yet we are quite dumb, not as clever as we either fear others might be, or we like to think we are. There are opportunists who see any crisis as an opportunity to press their agendas (Global Warming and Socialism for example). To explain their actions, their efforts to frighten people, make the Coronavirus (COVID-19) appear more monstrous than it is, we don’t need to assume they created it. That said, some of the happenings in recent years have given us cause to be suspicious. No doubt everyone has their favorites. Here are just a few of mine.
- Candidate Hillary Clinton and the DNC paid for that now thoroughly discredited Golden Showers dossier, the excuse used to spy on Trump’s campaign and latter to launch a special prosecutor to investigate the Trump administration. General Michael Flynn probably suffered as much as anyone. See Lindsey Graham asks DOJ for documents that ‘undercut’ Steele dossier source (washingtonexaminer.com), I helped write FISA. Let’s destroy it. (bizpacreview.com), and Flynn Attorney on Explosive New Documents: There’s More Coming and It Gets Worse (townhall.com).
- H. Clinton stole the nomination from B. Sanders. See Leaked emails show how Democrats screwed Sanders (nypost.com) and Leaked Democratic Party Emails Show Members Tried To Undercut Sanders (npr.org). What is positively weird is that the Democrats connived even more flagrantly to prevent Sanders from getting the nomination this year. Except for Sanders, all the other candidates dropped out and conceded the nomination to Joe Biden. Yet Biden clearly has something wrong with him. So, at this point no one really knows who will get the Democratic Party’s nomination. We just know lots of states are canceling the Democratic Party’s primary elections using the pandemic as an excuse, making it quite unlikely that Sanders will gain many more delegates.
So, should we be alarmed? Well, we ought to be more careful about protecting each others rights. That includes thanking God for the good news about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and getting our economy back to normal so that everyone can provide for themselves. Dependent people are just to easy to frighten and to push around.
Consider some of that news.
COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study (reason.com) reports this.
In the new study, the researchers sought residents through Facebook to whom they could administer the antibody tests. The results were an unadjusted prevalence of coronavirus antibodies of 1.5 percent. After making various statistical and demographic adjustments, researchers calculated the likely prevalence ranged from 2.49 to 4.16 percent. At the time that these tests were administered, there were about 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 32* deaths from the disease in Santa Clara County. The upshot is that “these prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”
Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: “A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%,” they report.* That’s about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza. (from here (reason.com))
New York releases antibody testing data: 14% of population may be infected with coronavirus (usatoday.com) reports this.
New York may have 13.9% of its population infected with coronavirus, meaning 2.7 million residents could have had the virus, preliminary state results Thursday showed.
New York heath officials conducted an antibody test of a sample of 3,000 people in recent days. The immediate results, released Thursday, suggested a death rate of about 0.5% of those infected because about 15,500 New Yorkers have died of confirmed COVID-19 cases. (continued here (usatoday.com))
We keep getting more and more reason to believe the virus is not as dangerous as we first feared. What we have confirmed instead is that that nasty virus is highly contagious. Fortunately, as Table 2 shows here, Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) (cdc.gov), the virus mostly kills the elderly. Therefore, younger people can continue to go to school and to work, practicing some social distancing, while the elderly practice more severe forms social distancing (which may do some good if it works as well as we think).
Consider how many people the flu kills. See 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (cdc.gov). To slow its spread, we wash our hands and cover our mouths when we cough and sneeze. When we are sick, we avoid the elderly and vulnerable. We may even stay at home. But we cannot completely halt the spread of the flu. All we can do is stop everyone from getting the flu at the same time, which would cause lots of problems.
- Trump Didn’t See It Coming: Coronavirus Deaths Increased Tenfold This Month (npr.org)
- Where can I get a COVID-19 antibody test and is it reliable? Here’s everything you need to know. (usatoday.com)
- What’s A Coronavirus Antibody Test? (forbes.com)
- Coronavirus: what do scientists know about Covid-19 so far? (theguardian.com)
- Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history and YouTube yanks doctors’ warning of constitutional crisis of COVID-19 (washingtontimes.com)
Be wary of how much weight you give to the two California studies on Covid-19 mortality and spread. Neither has undergone peer review, the most basic quality assurance measure taken in science. A lot of problems with the data and its statistical interpretation has been pointed out, already
One of the points being, that AFAIK the tests employed are sensitive to other coronaviruses, which do not cause Covid-19, but the common cold. Thus the tests could seriously overestimate the number of people having been infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Another study (peer-reviewed aka gone through basic QA) for consideration:
The statisticians had a look at the available data from Italy and examined, how many years of live were lost in the case of Covid-19 deaths, i.e. does it only kill those who would have died soon, anyway. They come to the conclusion, that on average a patient lost more than 10 years of life.
Thanks for the information.
We are making public policy based upon incomplete information. We don’t actually know the lethality rate for COVID-19. We just have guesses which for some strange reason have become too sacred to challenge. Coming from the defenders of the sacred number, this criticism is funny.
The problem with any test is the accuracy of the test. That can be difficult to ascertain. Sometimes we don’t know the rate of false positives, and sometimes we don’t know the rate of false negatives. Are there false negatives? Would the defenders of the sacred number be interested in discussing that?
When any of the experts proclaim a lethality rate for COVID-19, all of them have a same problem. They don’t know what it is. Everyone is guessing based upon inadequate information.
We have shut down the economy. We cannot keep it shut down. That damn virus is highly contagious. Put it New York City and it will spread rapidly. With somewhere in the neighborhood of 8.4 million people, a spike in the death rate is inevitable), and there is nothing anybody can do about it except to slow down the spread a little bit. When there is nothing anyone can do about it, what are thousands compared to millions?
Until the virus has run its course, some elderly and vulnerable people will die. We can try to protect them, but the rest of us need to get back to work. The “hoax” is that we can do anything else. Just because some busybody demands we should give him more power so he can save us, we are suppose to give it to him?
Please note that the incompetence of the New York’s leadership did not help. (https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/nursing-homes-care-about-their-patients-does-gov-cuomo/ and https://www.businessinsider.com/nursing-home-given-body-bags-when-they-accepted-coronavirus-patients-2020-4)
This is what this “hoax” can look like. Total deaths per week in New York City, all causes (heart attacks, cancer, traffic accidents, suicide, covid-19, ….)
Sorry for spamming, I hit the post button too early and made mistakes with formatting.
What is being shown: The data is simply counting death certificates for any cause by calender week. The latest data is still undercounting the actual number of deaths, due to data arriving late. Mine for example is outdated already. When I downloaded the data about a week ago the number of deaths in week 15 was 5889, now it is listed as 6858. In a couple of weeks the numbers for April should be final.Plots like the one above are unfortunately not available at the site, you need to download the data prepare them yourself. If you want to have a look around yourself:
You can nicely see the wave pattern in deaths in previous years corresponding to the seasons, winter having more deaths than summer. Part of that wave pattern is caused by the flu viruses. This season with Covid-19 is clearly an outlier in NYC. I will not speculate, what that spike would have looked like without lock-down.
This is an example what impact Covid-19 can have in a densly packed megacity like New York, where people come into close contact with lots of other people on a daily basis (think e.g. underground trains). This is not what you are going to see in rural communities, where mixing is limited anyway.
Keep in mind, the plot of NYC is thankfully an outlier and not representative for entire states outside of the wider NYC area. I did have a look at Washington, Virginia and Florida and I did not see any effect in number of deaths on the state level. In general you have large effects in the hotspots, where they occur, but that is washed out at the state level when you mix it with all the communities that thankfully are not a hotspot.
We need to find a way, to reopen the economy, while at the same time keeping people from mixing. One approach is getting the infection numbers down and then using aggressive contact tracing, testing and quarentines to keep them down. Vietnam is doing very well on that, however it comes at the cost of loss of personal liberties.
I think people really want some leader to give us a believable narrative on the virus. This is natural for us humans. When our early ancestors heard a noise in the night outside the light of the campfire, they.tried to assign a story to it so as to plan their actions. Is it something harmless, like a raccoon, or something dangerous, like a tiger or an enemy tribe? We have a natural tendency as life saving adaptation to be pessimistic about threats – if we are wrong about the raccoon, it won’t kill us, but we may have only one fatal chance to be wrong about the tiger.
We are all looking at the same facts and unknowns, but we desperately want have the right story on COVID-19. Absent actual facts about the threat, it is our nature to just just make stuff up with our very active imaginations and plan from that narrative. Many people will live or die depending on how correctly our collective narrative matches the facts as they are discovered.
Is COVID-19 actually tiger or a raccoon? Even if it is a predator, what kind is it? No matter how big the threat, How long can we hide in our caves before the threat of starvation becomes a greater threat than the tiger? Upon these calculations, the deadly dance between tigers and humans played out for millions of years with humans eventually breaking the status quo in our favor mainly because we were better able to adapt our narrative to control and marginalize the real threat.
Although some of us are screaming to stay in the cave, I think most of us know we can’t stay here forever and that, since some of us are more hungry than others, they will be forced into the jaws of the possible tiger first. Do we share our resources with them, or do we let them be our test subjects, even though the strength of the clan will be diminished? Because we’ve already paid some costs for hunkering down, should we continue to venture out cautiously, a little at a time until we have more information? How cautious can we actually afford to be? Are our decisions actually driven by reason and best information or by a political narrative where one faction of the tribe wants to control the leadership, either to advance more individualism on one side or more common unity of purpose on the other?
Meanwhile, the tiger, if he is out there, just stalks the jungle and waits.
A believable narrative? A saber tooth tiger? An enemy tribe? Or a racoon?
What people want from a leader is someone who will tell them what to do. What a good leader does is point back at the people following him. “I cannot kill that tiger by myself, but we can gang up on it. You want 20 spears in your hide? Neither does that tiger.”
It seems that some time back in December 2019 that the Chinese accidentally released the Coronavirus (COVID-19) from a research lab. Then the tyrannical regime running China hid what had happened, including the fact the virus is highly contagious between human beings, until the virus had spread widely outside of China.
Even though it does not seem likely the Chinese deliberately released the virus, is it possible the Chinese deliberately spread the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Should Trump tell you what to think, or can you figure it out for yourself?
Fearing the worst, the leaders of our medical community assumed the virus was highly contagious and relatively lethal. The virus has proven to be highly contagious, but it may not be as lethal as we first feared. Therefore, even though the right answer is still the same answer, that makes our choice little easier. We can stay in our caves and starve, or we can leave our caves and do our hunter-gatherer stuff.
Given the reason we first took refuge in our caves, to flatten the curve (evade the tiger), since the virus is not likely to go completely away (The tiger thinks our cave belongs to him.) it makes sense to come out of our caves. Staying in our caves won’t save us. Viruses still spread in caves. Therefore, so long as we have sufficient space in our hospital facilities we ought to grab our spears, get after that tiger, go back to work, and explain to that enemy tribe why it was a bad idea to sic a tiger on us.
Cute analogy… but more to the reality, why is it necessary for “us” (Trump) to need to assign the blame for the pandemic to the Chinese beyond that we already suspect, simply to deflect some political blame or take political credit for something? This is NO time to go down that road of him affixing political blame, the rest of us listening to the back-and-forth of Chinese and American blame/denial for months, and then trying to determine how to “punish” China… when we have far more serious national troubles to worry about and expend our energies. All that Trumpian garbage can come later when there is time to deal with it.
Trump, state governors, just “declaring” some pandemic BS contrived “milestone” to open the economy won’t make people leave the home, risk infection, and going back to spending money. If the government wants people to spend money the government is going to have to provide money and confidence that people can go out and buy. So far, not enough of anything resembling that. But thank God the tattoo shops are open.. right!
Oh.. hey.. maybe we can blame Obama for having “declared” America is now a service-driven economy… then we’d not have so many tattoo places, restaurants, domestics, etc. All our small business would have been better off in manufacturing!
Amazing the illiterate priorities people dream up in panics.
You are ranting. Stop making everything about Trump. Try a news source besides CNN.
Sorry.. you’re right. None of this is about Trump. He’s doing a fine job.
The Chinese Communists are dangerous. They want us out of their way. Really cannot ignore someone who is throwing punches at you.
That’s so Cold War, Tom. China barely suffices as being a defined Communist nation given the last 30+ years of economic tolerance… and continued trade expansion with us and other non-communist nations. They need us more than we need them.. but.. having said that, it does not one bit mean we wouldn’t suffer if their trade with us went adios. We have intertwined economies. Yep.. we need to consistently keep negotiating with these people… but a lot of their problem is 1.5 billion people. We’d be good to give consideration that what we see them doing is our future if our population expands to that level.
We keep a continued eye on them in all areas… call them on issues that matter to us… but there’s little need to get belligerent back with them. Our military watches theirs… they can putz around in the Spratleys but honestly… messing around there and the price of oil is going to suck for years to come.. makes little economic sense for them.
That’s all alarmist stuff.. and the odd thing is, your Dear Leader likes them and here you are defying your Leader.
China is not becoming more like us. We are becoming more like them.
Lots of our big corporations have close ties with China and kowtow to them.
Remember that NBA scandal. That exposed the tip of an iceberg. Be happy if you saw it. It is only way you will know what is hidden until you crash into it.
I thought that was one of the points I made… if our population continues we will become more like China… but even the slightest hint from that would be a couple generations after you and I are pushing up daisies. But also keep in mind, China has a much greater income disparity between their elite eastern coastal economies and the interior agricultural base. Far more different than this rural vs elite thing going on here.
You sound like a Marxist. Marx did not understand economics or care about human rights. He was not stupid, but he was indifferent to God.
China is a totalitarian state. I don’t want to live in such a monstrosity. If you do, you have lost something important your soul.
Hey, Tom.. you generally languish in some Trumpian world of “he never lies.. give me examples.” so here’s an example.
For sure it’s from CNN.. but go ahead and tell me where in all this CNN is wrong.
Every time Trump says something CNN calls it a lie. They inevitably take what he says out of context.
I have not followed the HIV thing, but look at the second thing CNN complains about. Trump is not suppose to let American citizens and permanent residents back into our country? Seriously? At this point we don’t have good relations with China. Imagine being there and unable to leave.
Only CNN or someone who doesn’t know any better would call making that exemption lie. Do our soldiers leave their buddies behind? Since when do Americans abandon their countrymen in a foreign land?
If you can find a transcript of the townhall or a complete video, I will happily read it or watch it.
Hehe.. yeah.. the old reliable “he’s taken out of context” defense. You think he will ever say anything in his presidency straight forward so as not to be taken out of context?
The townhall was a FOX thing.. I’m sure there’s a youtube on it somewhere. But here’s the thing… I did not watch that townhall (didn’t know it was even an event). I simply found that CNN fact check reporting article, read that pretty much without forming a personal judgement on its accuracy one way or the other.. and linked it to you “just because”. Now.. in fact, I DO know the guy lies because I listen to his yakking daily.. so it’s not a far stretch to presume CNN fact checking is correct as they have been before and I hold to their credibility. If reporting screws up, ok.. mistake made if they admit to it and do the correction. From the article it seems Trump’s answers to most questions were the usual pompous bravado and idiocy. Also.. these questions and Trump’s answers I’ve heard before in other venues and I could care less what he said or how he said it. So.. by trust and default I accept CNN’s reporting in this case without having to listen to Trump’s boring and mundane, and innane ignorant meanderings on that townhall. Here’s my summation… “Nothing is my fault. It’s all Obama’s fault. I did great things. I took over and inherited a mess. The press is all fake news. Schumer, Pelosi… blah, blah.” There.. that sums up all his answers in that townhall.
You don’t know whether CNN lies or Trump lies. You never bothered to check.
If you are going to send me any more of these CNN hit pieces, do your homework first. If you do due diligence, I doubt you will find any CNN hit piece on Trump worth bothering with.
I think that you may be conflating “a plan” with “a narrative”, perhaps because the two are related. The narrative drives the plan and whether or not the narrative really matches reality may determine whether or not the plan provides an actual beneficial solution, or just a lot of otherwise predictable unintended consequences.
The narrative that you presented above depends upon a good deal of speculation (rather than actual information) about which you only have some questionable probability of. being right or wrong. For example, you read some speculation somewhere about the virus being released from a Chinese lab rather than through wet markets. It may matter more in the after action reports, but how does it change our plan for fighting the virus? Do you have actually proof of that or do you simply accept it as fact because it fits a narrative of blame shifting that Trump is trying to build to deflect from his poor response?
You also make conjectures about spread and lethality? Do we really have hard peer reviewed data on that or does it just fit the narrative you are trying to present that governments overreacted?
Finally, you say that the US cannot survive unless we return to our previous economy immediately, but we essentially dedicated our whole economy over to a war effort for years during WWII and came out stronger from that than ever. Is your position that government cannot do certain things driven by fact or a narrative that you wish to create that desires less government (no matter how many people it kills)?
MLK famously said “I have a dream” (a narrative vision). His plan of nonviolent resistance worked because that narrative had moral and practical truth that inspired people to action that changed the nation and our laws for the better. That is what leadership looks like, and yes, we are sorely lacking that from the White House right now.
COVID-19 probably was accidentally released from a lab. Did not come from that wet market.
The Chinese lied to us about the virus. They said it was not spread human to human when the knew otherwise, and the were still allowing flights out of the China.
We have a plan to fight the virus that was and still is based upon conjecture. THE EXPERTS DID NOT HAVE ANY EXPERTISE WITH THAT VIRUS.
Watch Trump. He is going to let the example of states like Georgia force the rest to reopen for business. It is the only way to overcome the fear people have been fed.
What will happen in the fall? Watch Australia. It is fall there.
You want a war to fix the economy? It actually does not work that way. Factories building war equipment are not much good for anything until they are retooled. WWII did not fix our economy. It wrecked everyone’s economy. The government mostly got out the way and reduced taxes and stimulated foreign markets by helping folks rebuild.
Even if your conventional wisdom about WWII and our economy was true, I would rather not go that route, not even a war with a virus.
If we think an economy.. any economy.. is comprised of a number of elements.. like supply & demand.. profit & loss, a free market… very likely a war can and does turn things around. Re-tooling an economy from guns back to butter is solely dependent on investors willing to exploit consumer demand in some area. If a consumer expresses a demand then an economy forms. So while people died in WW2 and infra-structure in Europe and the Pacific theaters were destroyed, it nonetheless fed the inherent consumer demand given all the jobs creating to re-build. Frankly… American dollars t tended to support the post-war economic re-building around the world. All the people that were killed creating a diminished population? Nature took care of that. And people like us were born that ended up being a marketing juggernaut as we aged.
Yes.. wars can make economies thrive. Does not mean we need to start one necessarily. Although this “war” we are currently fihting has revealed somethings interesting. One side wants to close down the economy to stop consumerism to save lives. The other side thinks any live lost is collateral damage and worth the price to keep the economy going.
Fine! I agree! Let’s start a war against China. We will all get rich.
Sorry, but on the source of the outbreak, whether these allegations are true or not, I still don’t see why this narrative speculation matters as to our plan going forward or as to the current administration’s accountability for what they have done and not done to get us here, or what they continue to do or not do going forward. Instead the Chinese lab incident has a “wag the dog” feel to it of trying to distract from current weak national leadership and replace it with an irrelevant hatred for China. No one really doubts that the virus came from China, probably due to their negligence one way or another (just as various “superbug” outbreaks likely negligently have come and will continue to come from American overprescribing of our best antibiotics to our livestock in cruel, unsanitary and crowed stockyards, poultry farms and pig farms).
Australia? I thought countries you have not visited are irrelevant to you? In any event, New Zealand and Australia worked very aggressively to antisocially isolate the virus and not only flatten the curve, but at least for now flatten the virus. Is that the model that you are recommending or is it a model you’re condemning? You seem as confused as Trump is.
Yes, no one has perfect information on this situation, but it is not totally unique or a spiritual mystery that cannot ever be fathomed, or for which we incapable of modeling, studying various test cases and aggressive scientific analysis. The narratives with which we formulate plans could be based upon that, but instead you chose a narrative based more on your politics than the best science or the morality of saving lives through harm reduction.
Your false political narrative is driving a self fulfilling deterministic prophecy: Government is bad therefore if the government that you elected is bad, then you think it proves your point. The only point that you are actually making is that Trump is a poor leader. Full stop. Period.
I’m neither for or against opening up the economy. I just think we should have a plan based on the best and most truthful scientific and moral narrative, rather than either extreme’s asinine political magical thinking or “wag the dog” deflections. I don’t know if Georgia is right or not – depending on which way he got out of bed at noon each day, our President takes all the positions and no positions. We are a storm tossed and rudderless ship headed for the rocks and our captain is doing his hair and makeup while yelling at the Chinese because the storm came from China. How’s that for our narrative
Stop being cute and try thinking.
Didn’t know the goal of the pandemic was to catch Trump actually doing something wrong. You all given up on making things up?
I stated the point. We have been operating off speculation from the getgo. We did not have any good data at the start. THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT LIED TO US!
We have been gather data over time. Refusing to adapt our strategy to what we now know is just absurd, but everyone is afraid to admit the obvious. They have been guessing about what to do and imitating what others can get away with that seems to garner some approval. Meanwhile, a frantic fearmongering news media has driven the narrative.
When the people who put our flu vaccines together need to figure out what needs to be included. they look at the southern hemisphere. When we are having summer, they are being had by winter.
If COVID-19 subsides during the summer, and comes back this fall, what is going on in the southern hemisphere this summer will most likely to give us a heads up.
Meanwhile, you attack Trump and throw darts at anything that looks like it might restart the economy. You are about as moderate as a lovestruck teenage boy is indifferent to the charms of his pretty girlfriend.
Good point Doug! Maybe the new slogan for the Trumpublican Party should be “Consumers for Christ” to match the Prosperity Gospel that dominates Republican religionism in a country where supposed evangelical Christians rally behind an adulterous, thrice married, pathologically lying, gold plated, narcissist and conman.
The casinos are shut down here in Mississippi, which is causing a good deal of hardship for the low paid workers who lost work there, but maybe this might also a good time to reconsider whether casinos are really good economic engines of prosperity and morality in a community anyway. Given the power of the gaming lobby in my red state, I guess that’s unlikely to happen, whether it’s a hurricane, a war or pandemic.
This is just your own bigotry speaking. You attack anyone who supports Trump in with lies, accusations you have not even bothered to fact check. Does that make you virtuous or a liar?
We are what we watch, listen to, read, think about, and so forth. If we make a habit of listening to journalists with a political agenda instead of a thirst for truth and justice, we will adopt an agenda instead of a respect for the truth.
Again I suggest, Tom.. your cynicism about humanity in general continues to come through… and you profess some level of Christian morality. I’ve gone through life presuming humans are good by nature and generally have good intentions. The difference is that one person’s “good intentions” can be interpreted as another’s “misguided intentions”. I honestly think Trump has generally “good” intentions toward other humans in his thoughts… but that by no means interprets out to being a measure of his actual actions at all. I think the cable news networks ” schtick journalists” and true journalists, do not have biased intent bought by graft, corruption, intimidation, and bribery according to the whims of some network owner. I do not one bit believe cable networks lavish in some world of “let’s get Trump”, nor do I even believe the Democrats get up in the morning, face east toward the White House, and place a hex on the occupant. The problem is not who is trying to get Trump out of office but rather why does he have 40% of the people who worship him.
So you don’t think you are being propagandized by the so-called mainstream mass media? Well, if that is all you pay attention to, it is a cinch you would not know any better.
Am I a cynic? Don’t have much desire to defend myself. The attacks would just keep coming, and pretty soon all I would be doing is defending myself, but I think you misunderstand something. I don’t believe in humanity; I believe in God. Believing in God does not make anyone a cynic; it makes them a realist.
We both grew up in the last century in the aftermath of WWII. Shortly after WWII ended the Cold War begin. It was only by divine providence that we did not destroy ourselves, and things have not changed much. Given that history, if you believe in humanity instead of God, you have my pity. I cannot come close to feeling the desperation you must feel. Although, at one time I was fatalistic, knowing I lived in a world none of us can save from ourselves.
A cynic always expects the worst. A Christian looks forward with joy. Jesus has already overcome the world. A Christ knows the salvation of the people he loves and his own salvation are God’s Hands, not the hands of some foolish man.
So what are you doing? Perhaps you are projecting upon me your own cynicism. Cynicism would explain why you cannot give up hating Trump. Instead of regarding him like any other president, an ordinary man with a job that is too big for any of us, you think of him as some god.
Who is the man you worship? Why don’t you praise him instead of hating on Trump. Instead of voting for Trump in 2020, who should I vote for? Biden? I doubt that guy is competent enough to get the nomination. That is how crooked the Democratic Party has become.
I can level the “God created man in his own image.” argument but as we know that line has been interpreted every which way that’s convenient. In the spiritual sense, I tend to prefer that humans are extensions of God, less “His” infinite powers and omnipotence, of course. No need for me to explain further because God and myself have our own relationship and I’m not trying to sell anyone.. nor demean another’s religious comfort level. My perception of you being a cynic toward humanity was in contrast to your open expression of the Christian beliefs you prefer… given Christianity tends to be more charitable and tolerant, and forgiving toward fellow man. You seem to prefer that man is guilty when born then must spend the rest of his life begging forgiveness. Ok.. who’s to say that’s not some level of “correctness” when all the hands are revealed after the big game and we all find out the truth in the hereafter.
I am satisfied that anyone.. Dem or Republican, who can defeat Trump, has my vote. In this election it’s not about “who is better than Trump” but more about who can topple Trump. There’s time after that to debate policy and issues.
“Didn’t know the goal of the pandemic was to catch Trump actually doing something wrong. ”
Would be nice to catch Trump doing anything but his hair and makeup, rage tweeting, self aggrandizing, scapegoating and blame shifting. As it is, Trump does nothing useful and he is for and against everything at the same time. You keep trying to convince everyone else of some plan where you have no clue what you are talking about – convince your mercurial and incompetent president to have a plan at all.
“THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT LIED TO US!”
What is that then, a day that ends in “y”? Trump lies to us when the truth would work just as well and that does not seem to bother us when Trump is snuggling up to them. Trump was praising China all during the time that China was lying to us, and while the PDB (which Trump doesn’t read) was telling Trump he had a problem with China. Regardless, what does any of this have to do with how the greatest country in the world fights off a virus and saves its citizens lives? It’s a red hearing, a “tail wagging the dog”, a way for Trump to shift blame away for his own incompetence, and you’re falling for it, again.
“You are about as moderate as a lovestruck teenage boy is indifferent to the charms of his pretty girlfriend.”
Sigh…. To be a teenager again. That is the sweetest insult I’ve had in ages. Thanks But my wife of forty years is more than pretty enough for me.
And if the current pandemic isn’t enough for you we now are on the brink of having an infestation of “murder hornets” from Asia.
Maybe something “Biblical” is going on?
No. This sort of thing has become routine, unfortunately. The American Chestnut tree use to be a quarter of the trees in America’s east. They are almost gone now. I would have loved to seen one full grown. They would huge, a 120 feet tall.
A fungus from China in the 1920’s decimated American Chestnut. Someone who did not know any better imported some Chinese Chestnut lumber. We are still trying to breed a hybrid that can withstand the fungus.
The problem with such a ferocious bee predator is that we need the honey bee to fertilize lots of our crops. So we don’t have a choice. We have to fight that damn wasp tooth and nail. You see one. Don’t ignore it.
Well, if it makes you feel any better, that could have been written by a 13 year old.
If you are just going to cast baseless insults against Trump, you are wasting your time. You want people like me to vote for someone else? Find a better candidate. Otherwise, you are wasting your time.
Liberal Democrats have spent four years abusing the powers of government to destroy Trump and the people who support him. Whatever Trump has done wrong doesn’t even come close. Yet your idea of a discussion of the issues is insulting Trump. That is wrong, and you know it!
Geez Doug. Thanks for the nightmares.
Not to worry. I suspect these hornets came from the secret labs in Wuhan and brought over here by renegade Liberals hell-bent on making Trump look bad.
That is actually not so farfetched. If we don’t know how those hornets got here, then we have to consider the possibility someone brought them here deliberately. If the murder hornet does serious damage to America’s bee population, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will cease to be a concern. Just too trivial by comparison.
Would the Chinese Communists do it? If they thought they would not be blamed, why not?
Why am I not surprised, Tom….
Why aren’t you surprised? Because you have been told not to be, and you believe your propagandists.
China pours a bunch of money into our country. One of the things that buys them is good publicity and the suppression of bad publicity.
The truth is out there is you want to look.
The Council on Foreign Relations, on the other hand, is reluctant to criticize.
Others just point out the history and note same people are still in charge.
Imagine if WWII had ended in a truce. The regime that perpetrated the Holocaust was still around. What would you think of people who still revered Hitler as a great leader? What about Joseph Stalin or Mao Zedong?
What’s the matter? Doug is not a cynic.
Maybe I’m learning from the master. 😛
“Well, if it makes you feel any better, that could have been written by a 13 year old.”
Sure, 13 year olds are pretty smart these days. Thanks again.
“If you are just going to cast baseless insults against Trump, you are wasting your time.”
This is will be fun. You Which specifically facts do you dispute?
Facts? You are just repeating a bunch of unsupported conclusions.
Trump always provide nice words and empty praise for the people he is trying to make a deal with. He puts and iron fist in a velvet glove, hardly surprising, but any excuse to criticize.
You offered an observation about the PDB. Why don’t you investigate what Trump actually said instead of believing the tripe you call news?
‘Murder Hornets’ in the U.S.: The Rush to Stop the Asian Giant Hornet
If beauty is in the eye of the bee holder, the hornet must be a real femme fatale.
(ba dum bump)
PS: China continues to suck in all ways.
I think we can only compare the two (flu and corona) if we have corresponding data for both.
To my knowledge, even in a bad year they don’t test the antibodies of an entire community to see who had the flu. So how do we compare the two even for death rates?
It’s likely there are a whole lot of asymptomatic carriers for the flu, and/or folks who were only hit “lightly” and never went to the doctor. And we don’t “social distance” (I’m starting to hate that word) for the flu, and we know how diseases are spread so what would be the outcome without these precautions?
As of today there have been around 65000 official covid related deaths.
That’s more than a bad flu season, and it has only been about two months.
At any rate, there is some good news, at least in Georgia so far.
They’ve opened things and so far it looks good (knock on wood).
This is a test case.
It is premature to get too happy, but maybe a little joy is in order.
It is kind of a ironic. When the “experts” sold us on the idea that we had to shut down the economy and practice social distancing, they used a comparison between the flu and the coronavirus (COVID-19). Now that the mortality rates for the flu and COVID-19 seem to be more similar than expected, we are not allowed to make the comparison. The fact is that they are just telling us to shut up and obey orders.
Thanks for the good news. With summer coming on — pray for more good news.
When the “experts” sold us on the idea that we had to shut down the economy and practice social distancing, they used a comparison between the flu and the coronavirus (COVID-19). Now that the mortality rates for the flu and COVID-19 seem to be more similar than expected, we are not allowed to make the comparison. The fact is that they are just telling us to shut up and obey orders.
True. The only thing that surprises me is so few people see it.
I never accepted the comparison with the flu (just based on behavior, not epidemiology…I never worried much about SARS or MERS or whatnot because I never saw China shut itself down like that). And I don’t think we can (reasonably) do so now…for the above reasons. We have no idea how many flu infections there are each year, with a fine degree of precision. We only know who comes in to get medical treatment and they aren’t always tested for the flu either. Often they just get a throat swab for strep and go back home when it’s negative.
At any rate, I am going to be watching Georgia carefully with hope in my heart for the next few weeks. They opened some things here in Colorado (but not my county, my county is supposed to open some things up by the 8th).
I am praying for sure! Stay safe and well, all.
Our Democrat governor wants to start reopening businesses on the 8th too. He is trying to present the appearance of going by the book.
What I fear is that Congress will try to bail out the states (They are not collecting much in taxes now.). If Trump wants the country open for business again, that would be a huge mistake.
See my comments about total death counts in NYC starting here:
Here ya go. Prove this is all fake news.
Yep… it’s CNN.. so send me a FOX version.
Thanks for the reference.
You are commenting on my post, but you have not read it. Funny.
Shutting down the economy does not stop COVID-19. IT STOPS US!
Ugh. I can’t.. I simply can’t. You folks are so buried in your politics and conspiracy theories… not worth getting into it.
Yeah.. it’s all a hoax. Take off your masks, grab your guns.. and go find a state capitol to intimidate. Lock & load! Jeez Louise.
Did not call it a hoax. 😀
The virus is not a hoax but our response to it certainly approaches the level of fever nightmares. Never before have we responded to a pandemic by purposefully closing the economy and quarantining healthy people. Now, not only do we have the awful effects of a collapsed economy to deal with, our immune system are weaker from all this sheltering in place which will only make getting to herd immunity that much longer and difficult.
We are thinking alike as far as antibody testing bringing good news.
So reason.com bills itself as a “libertarian” publication and it doesn’t have an agenda?
When whatever happens doesn’t not fit a preconceived political reality, then the whole world is subject to an elaborate hoax, a giant conspiracy theory, or at the very least, just sheer stupidity. On the other hand, if even the most obviously politically biased source cherry picks very incomplete data, then that is to be believed as long as it conveniently matches your confirmation biases. (How many extra dead people are expendable for the so-called “Culture of Life” Party?).
Have you considered that in risk assessment for planning, leadership and harm control to take place, we must first humbly acknowledge what we don’t know . . . or we could just act blindly based upon wild conspiracy theories. That works too, I guess.
Here’s another thing you may want to consider Tom. Trump has been in charge for over three years. Republicans had control of the House for the first two and the Senate for the whole time. The majority of the Court has been Republican appointed for a while now. Whether it’s an elaborate hoax or a giant conspiracy theory or the biggest natural and economic disaster of our life time, Republicans, and particularly Trump, owns it. He’s accountable.
The man doesn’t read the PDB and will only let them do a short verbal brief about twice per week. He stays in his residence watching Fox News until noon (and doing his hair and makeup, I suppose), and spends his nights rage tweeting. Before recently, Trump spent record amounts of time at his resorts golfing. Because the man cannot be briefed, in the midst of an international crisis, Trump does these disturbing reality tv shows everyday where he contradicts his experts and his own policies, says both stupid stuff and outright lies, picks unnecessary fights with the press, hard sells various cockamamie snake oil solutions, encourages armed rebellion against governors who are essentially carrying out his own administration’s plans, blame shifts, scape goats and engages in massive amounts of magical thinking. But no, it’s all just a giant hoax, a conspiracy theory and Republicans are all just victims of the government that they are mostly running, anything but the obvious – just plain bad leadership.
Can’t you step away from your partisan ideological blindness for even half a second, put on your old military officer accountability hat and see how insane this whole Trump clown show is? (If Trump were a Democrat, would this look right to you?).
Here’s my uninformed prediction for the week: Sometime in the next few months, Trump will try to blame the whole failed response on Pence and dump him for Nicky Haley. That makes no sense so of course it perfectly in character for Trump.
Oh, and I left something off the description of the Trump daily debacle – during a crisis where Americans are dying by the tens of thousands, our Narcissist-in-Clown, Mr. Empathy, mostly just praises himself constantly. Have you ever noticed that an actual great job generally speaks for itself, but a con job, well that is always a turd that needs lots of polishing?
Why would I cite reason.com?
The so-called mainstream news media ignores what they don’t want us to know.
The goal of social distancing is to keep our hospitals from being overloaded. If you thought about it you would realize that the goal should be to keep the elderly and vulnerable from getting sick. In that case, we would allow the young and healthy to get the virus protect the elderly and vulnerable. Then, after the virus had run its course we would still would not have overloaded our hospitals and there would be no one with the virus to infect the elderly and vulnerable.
Unfortunately, instead of thinking, you are too busy hating on Trump.
All that may be true or not. Neither of us know what we are talking about and even the experts desperately and aggressively need more information. However, even if your theory is true, your fearless leader has only been dithering from the beginning.
Sweden is not the US – they have much better social safety nets, including universal health care. But Sweden comes closest to what you are advocating. Whether it works or not and whether it was a model we could have followed here, the leadership of Sweden at least took early decisive action based on the risks, the science and the resources of their country. Trump does not lead, follow or get the Hell out of the way of any plan, but let’s other people flail on their own so as to avoid accountability for anything that fails and take credit for anything that works.
“Unfortunately, instead of thinking, you are too busy hating on Trump.”
Funny, when I bring up our current Republican non-leadership of the country and hold him accountable, that’s dismissed as “Trump hating”, but when you somehow blame Clinton (the not President) or the media (the not government) that is it somehow not just emotional conspiracy theories, blame shifting and scapegoating? Right….
Didn’t mention Sweden. You just did, but I think it interesting that Sweden did not implement a big government solution. Instead, Sweden’s leaders trusted the Swedish people to protect themselves and each other. I doubt Sweden is as Socialist as you think.
You detest Trump? Yet you are happy to force a big government ideologue on the rest of us. You insist on voting for big government even as you constantly and “humbly” proclaim your vast ignorance. If you cannot figure out that the people who need to protected from the virus are the people most likely to die from it, what qualifies you to pick some power mad bozo to make everyone’s else’s choices?
Well, it’s strange how Sweden, who just recently they derided as one of those failed socialist welfare states is now the darling of far Right Wing punditry. I agree completely that Sweden (and most of the Northern European countries) are as Socialist as either side thinks. That’s because there are very few true socialist countries in the world, just as there are very few true libertarian countries in the world. That’s because both true socialist countries and true libertarian countries are on their way to or are already failed states. As I’ve said before, all deterministic closed loop ideologies at either extreme fail over time, usually a fairly short time. Even China’s until recently very successful form of socialism is mixed, and the Moist Communism is seen by everyone, even the Party elite itself, with sentimentalist reverence rather than as something to be actually workable own the real markets.
Most of the northern European countries, particularly Scandinavia, are a unique mix of welfare state type social safety nets for labor, the promotion of highly competitive and adaptive capitalism for their entrepreneurial capital markets, and a government system that promotes them both and uses the money gotten by latter to pay for the former.
We have unique cultural and demographic circumstances in the US that make it hard for us to copy the Scandinavian model, nor do I think we should. But I think that we could learn some things from Northern Europe. And then as good Americans have always done, adapt and improve the good and get rid of the bad so that we come up with something more dynamic and unique to America, our demographics and our values. Or we can continuously have the same stupid stagnating argument about individual rights versus social responsibility, as if those two things could be mutually exclusive in an increasingly small and globalized world where either a virus or a good idea spreads around the planet faster than a wild fire.
I don’t think you know what you are talking about, but I’m not against your idea because of any ideological agenda. To you who have spent your life on the government dole, our economy and labor issues are just ideological parlor games – I have actually lived it. But you are a very moral and smart guy, you know one of those elites that you don’t trust, so your solutions are probably more worthy of listening than mine – unlike you, I don’t even claim to have any big plan to save the world. But you need to fill in a lot of blanks if you really want to claim that it is “a plan”.
Because of our ages, you and I are in the cross hairs of this virus. However, we also unfortunately have, especially among the poor and people of color, many younger vulnerable people. Sweden has social safety nets that have made people generally more healthy at all socio-economic levels. Their vulnerable citizens don’t have to worry about starving if they need to isolate themselves. They don’t have to worry about crippling hospital bills if they get sick and seek treatment early. If they do get sick, they will continue to receive income even if they can no longer work.
By comparison, more people now are unemployed in America than perhaps ever, and thus many of those that had insurance have lost it. In America, like you said, for many if they don’t work, they can’t feed and shelter themselves and their families, whether they are in the vulnerable population or not, whether they get very sick or they just get moderately sick. That means they have to go to work, expose themselves and expose others. Until you get the magical herd immunity (which actually requires worldwide herd immunity to work), how do we actually isolate the old and vulnerable if they have to go to the same grocery stores and barber shops, the same nursing homes with forks who are infected and not wearing masks? If government does not pay for, organize and regulate these protections, do you really think that it will be done through a massive wave of voluntary good will? Right . . . I got some swamp in Mississippi to sell you.
Finally, I don’t expect perfection in any government plan in this world. I recognize that we are dealing with something unique both medically and economically (a “novel” virus) so I recognize that any plan will be fraught with unintended consequences, no matter how well done. Regardless, one would hope that the intention of plan would be morally compassionate and so designed to reduce suffering and harm, but also that any plan’s probabilities of success will be based upon the best science available.
Unfortunately, to work any plan also requires leadership at the top, both for our country and for the entire world. With this incompetent, sociopathic, narcissistic, divisive and morally corrupt President, we simply do not have that sort of leadership at this time. I’d love to have Trump prove me wrong Polls show that the country (and perhaps even the world) has never been more united in common resolve, and we are basically dying to have someone inspire us to new levels of common unity of purpose and yes, Christian love. But Trump never actually leads – he just blames, scapegoats and divides. I’m afraid that we will have to do most of this without him and in spite of him in the states and wait for someone better to replace him. BTW, so far, surprisingly, I think my Republican Governor is doing a decent job. It could be better, but it’s is worlds better than Trump.
Not really interested in a silly argument about Sweden. You want to change the subject and write 20 paragraphs about whether Sweden is Socialist? I think that is just an admission you need to change the subject.
Do I have a plan to save the world? The Bible. Note I am not the author. The Bible comes from a higher authority.
So Sweden allows people to make their own decisions, and our governors force people to stop working and won’t let them go back to work? Glad you don’t expect perfect government, but I think you just illustrated why we need less.
When we insist upon having the government take over a problem and boss us around, that is an act of desperation. Politics almost always leads to a suboptimal solution.
“So Sweden allows people to make their own decisions, and our governors force people to stop working and won’t let them go back to work? Glad you don’t expect perfect government, but I think you just illustrated why we need less.”
So you now see the Swedish welfare state as your model for allowing people to make their own decisions. Cool!
Just throwing your own analysis right back at you. Not silly enough to argue about the nature a country I have never even visited.
Even though Socialism is a type of Statism, this really isn’t about Socialism. It is about just being wrong (in hindsight), and not being willing to admit it.
Trump thought the Coronavirus (COVID-19) would be dangerous. Therefore, he listened to his experts and issued guidelines. Many of the governors took this guidance and shut down everything they could. Since then Trump has replaced his initial guidance with guidance to restart the economy. Meanwhile, some governors are trying to find excuses to keep things shut down.
By November we will have a fair idea of just how dangerous the COVID-19 was and whether we will still have it with us this coming winter. There will still be some confusion, of course, Lots of propaganda and manipulated statistics, but Trump, since he favored reopening the economy as soon as possible, will probably look better than the Democrats who insisted upon keeping economy shut down.
The irony in this whole episode is so strange. Even though Trump initially treated COVID-19 far more seriously than the Democrats, now the exact opposite is true. Can’t let a crisis go to waste. That is, once they have tasted it, Liberal Democrats cannot give up power.
Where do you get all this nonsense, Tom?? Complete and utter misguided interpretations of everything!
But.. you know… Trump could stand at a podium and say absolutely nothing.. just stand there and look orange and dumb.. and we’d all walk away with a complete different idea of what we just saw…. and believe it.
Where to I “get all this nonsense”? It isn’t from CNN.
Please observe that you did not bother to explain what was wrong with “all this nonsense”.
We seek information. There is no such thing as an unbiased source. All of us have biases. When journalists claim to be neutral, they are not telling the truth. Look at your own words.
You are implying you see Trump as he is, and I don’t. I don’t pretend to see Trump as he is. Only God does that. The difference between you and I seems to be that I know I am biased and try to guard against my biases. You don’t.
Instead of depending upon just a few news sources, those who reaffirm what you want to believe, try some who present the news from a different angle, especially those who don’t cover up for Liberal Democrats.
So months ago, Trump took the virus seriously (but was saying and doing the opposite) and he encouraged the Democrats to shut down the economy which they didn’t want to do, but Trump was wrong and the virus isn’t really serious so we destroyed our economy and put everyone out of work for no reason so now Trump wants to reopen the economy but Democrats want to keep the government shut down because they like the economy destroyed because they are “statists” (apparently your new fav word because Sweden, who you agree with but don’t want to talk about because you’ve never been there has a working welfare state) and Democrats prefer the dystopia of a badly working state over your model of a non-state (which I can only assume is a failed state because you give no actual example of this magical Ayn Rand paradise perhaps because no one has ever been there) and although the Democrats are following the Trump administration’s own plan for opening the economies of their states better than many of the Republican Governors (except the Republican Governors who are following Trump’s pandemic policy because they are secret Democrats), they will ultimately be proven wrong for following the Trump administration’s policy and the Republican Governors who did not follow Trump’s policy and opened early will not have outbreaks of death and overrun hospitals and Trump will somehow come out as a hero in all this for having a policy that Republicans ignored because he both actively encouraged his policy and actively discouraged his own policy because he saw this crisis coming from the beginning, and isn’t somehow acting erratically and divisively, but China and WHO and the Democrats are somehow to blame, and then triumphant over himself Trump appoints the coronavirus to be the the head of the CDC and Ebola gets to run the WHO, and once all their Boomer grandparents are dead, a younger brave new world becomes your Randian (nonstatist?) state of Christian love and Utopia? That about some it up?
Have you considered getting a job with CNN?
I can speak for myself, but from my perspective Trump was right when he shut down travel. If you’ll recall, he received a lot of criticism for this, and he did it against WHO guidelines. At this point in time, we now know China had shut down Wuhan for travel around China, but kept free and open travel for Wuhan residents to fly to other countries. I think he was right to have the shutdown also. As you’ll recall the mayor of NY was the biggest opponent. See how that one went.
I think it is a good time to open things up now.
It’s not only an economics issue (which cannot be overstated) it’s also a mental health issue. And mental health and physical health are connected.
Starting with areas that are least likely to encounter problems.
Sweden is interesting (and I’ve been watching, as I mentioned I would).
Sweden but I think it’s one of those correlation/causation problems.
They might be open, but the rest of the world is shut down.
They are far less likely to import germs. And their death numbers are still far higher than their direct neighbors. Time will tell what the end result will be. Maybe it will all even out by this time next year.
Whenever we look at the number of dead, we need to consider the fact that our government promote the economic shutdown and severe social distancing to prevent our hospitals from being overloaded, not necessarily to decrease the overall number of dead. The idea was that IF OUR HOSPITALS WERE OVERLOADED more would die. Otherwise, all are doing is flattening the curve. The same number will die. It will just take a bit longer. Hence, so long as Sweden’s hospitals are not overloaded, Sweden is not experiencing any more deaths than it would have otherwise. They are just allowing younger people to catch the virus and get over it quicker instead of slower.
Sorry…I can ONLY speak for myself meant to say above.
Maybe they’d let me be a political pundit . . . apparently qualifications are required for opinions in the punditocracy, might even be a detriment. Might help if I could spell though.
So is it a hoax or not? I do not have to care about money. God has supplied all my needs to an incredible degree.
Is it a hoax? Well, never let a good crisis go to waste? There is definitely something going on behind the scenes that we don’t understand. The math doesn’t add up, the science doesn’t add up, and we’ve now flattened the curve. Mission accomplished! Suddenly we’re trying to change the mission and extend the goal post?? Nope, not working for me.
Good for you!
The best way to see if it is a hoax or not is to find and ask somebody who (a) has had it and recovered or (b) has lost a loved on to its ravages.
You don’t understand. If it just saves one life, it is worth the cost of destroying the economy and going without food, clothing, and shelter. If you don’t believe that all you care about is money.