What follows is an excerpt from yesterday’s edition of Senator Ken Cuccinelli‘s of the Cuccinelli Compass.
With a week to go, our opponent is almost going berserk with negative ads. And his union supporters are feeding him cash to do it, like the $25,000 donation he got today from the AFSCME. So, how is it working?
Well, I will share with you some of our internal numbers as a way of figuring it out.
We see daily tracking numbers, so we can see trends. The tone and tenor of our opponent’s ads became sharply negative this past week, so let’s look at the comparison of where we were last Sunday to this Sunday, and let’s isolate that part of Virginia where we’ve been being hit the hardest with his negative ads – Southeast Virginia (referred to as the Norfolk media market, though it includes the whole area).
FYI, we poll by media market, so we can react by media market if need be.
My opponent appears to think that there’s ground to be gained in SE Va. by trying to tie me to his attacks on Del. Hamilton, so he’s pouring it on there. He has been running negative radio ads since the very beginning of September, with T.V. since the end of September.
No where else in Virginia did they begin advertising before the third week of September.
So, on October 18th, they were up in the polling in the Norfolk media market (the only market in Virginia they were leading in). And they were up by a lot – 15 points. The early part of the week they dramatically escalated their negative attacks, departing farther from reality in their attacks than ever before.
So, by the end of the week, how did that work out for them?
Incredibly, we saw the single biggest one week swing in ANY media market anywhere – 25 points! By Sunday the 25th, we were up by 10 in the Norfolk media market. We now lead in every single media market.
How does this happen? Well, there are two explanations in my humble opinion.
First, I already mentioned the extraordinary tone of their negative ads. Ads that just can’t stand up to scrutiny.
Second, is a factor I haven’t mentioned yet, and that is name identification. Incredibly, after outspending us for the duration of the race, my opponent STILL has not crossed 50% name I.D. (that’s as of today!). He has failed to do the most basic thing in political advertising: introduce yourself to the audience.
It’s amazing how frequently people all over Virginia ask me who I am running against. It is STILL happening, even at the end of October! Usually I refuse to tell them… I figure, let him spend his own money to introduce himself.
His very low name I.D. is particularly important in the context of negative attack ads because of a concept called “carrying a negative.” A candidate has to have sufficient stature of their own with the electorate to “carry a negative” attack. Part of the reason his negative attacks are not working is that he has not adequately introduced himself to the electorate to capture any benefit from attacking me.
It also doesn’t help my opponent that Creigh Deeds – you remember him? – ran 6 weeks of unrelenting negative ads against Bob McDonnell, so folks are fed up with it even more than they would otherwise be.
The result is that all his negative advertising did virtually nothing to change his name identification in the Norfolk media market, and people actually reacted by moving our way on the ballot.
Moral of the story? Several. First, there’s a very real danger to unmitigated negative campaigning. Second, a candidate needs to have already established his own image in the public’s mind before going negative on the other side. You have to be known to be “for” some position(s) before you can effectively attack your opponent.
So, that’s your inside view here at The Compass.
When all is said and done, most people do want to elect someone they trust, someone who stands for something and means it. Even if you don’t agree with a politician, it is nice to know he will not swindle you.
Are you one of those people who wants to trust the people we elect to public office? Do you care about the future of Virginia and the United States? Then this coming Tuesday, make certain you get to the polls and vote.
Unauthorized and paid for by nobody. 
