Citizen Tom

Here is something mystifying. Bob Marshall wants to debate Jim Gilmore. Unfortunately, Gilmore has other ideas.

“We are past the point of debates,” Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal said. “Seventy-five percent of the delegates already have been elected, and they know where Jim Gilmore stands.” (from here)

Why doesn’t Gilmore want to debate Marshall? What does he have to lose? Would Gilmore be lending credibility to a fringe candidate? That does not seem likely. Press reports about how well each candidate is doing are somewhat mixed. Portraying little confidence in this report, the Richmond Times-Dispatch tells us that Gilmore campaign is comfortable with its lead.

Republican leaders say the long-standing party ties of Gilmore, Virginia’s governor from 1998 to 2002, have attracted a majority of the delegates chosen so far, about three-quarters through the delegate selection process.

“I feel pretty confident that particularly in the Richmond area there is a lot of support for Jim Gilmore,” said Linwood Cobb of Henrico County, the 7th District Republican chairman.

But Cobb cautioned that a lot of delegates remain to be chosen in the district, including delegates from Henrico.

Republicans will choose their nominee May 31 at a convention at the Greater Richmond Convention Center. The winner will take on former Gov. Mark R. Warner, a Democrat, in the general election Nov. 4.

Almost 75 percent of the delegates have been selected. Marshall, with the type of activist followers who tend to show up at conventions, is still in a position to win, political commentator Steve Farnsworth said.

“It’s very much a turnout contest,” the University of Mary Washington political scientist said. (from here)

The Washington Post assessment suggests even more doubts about who might win.

But both campaigns are essentially guessing at their level of support. Many of the local GOP committees have not released final delegate lists, meaning the campaigns are making assumptions based on whom they saw at the local meetings.

Adding to the uncertainty, some delegates may be able to cast as many as 25 separate votes for the same candidate while others get just fractions of a vote. The discrepancy arises because each county and city is given a certain number of votes — based on the performance of recent Republican candidates in those areas — regardless of how many people sign up to be delegates.

“Anyone who tells you they have a vote count right now is fooling you,” said GOP strategist J. Kenneth Klinge, a Marshall supporter from Northern Virginia. (from here)

This is a close race. Both Gilmore and Marshall are serious candidates. Because the outcome is in such doubt, turnout will decide the outcome.

So does Gilmore have something to gain by debating Marshall? I think so — if Gilmore can win debates with Marshall. By successfully debating Marshall, Gilmore can increase interest in his campaign and increase delegate turnout. In addition, Gilmore can build momentum for a campaign against Mark Warner, and Gilmore needs such momentum. No matter which candidate wins the Republican nomination, be it Gilmore or Marshall, the Republican Party’s candidate will be the underdog.

Gilmore, a Republican, has raised $747,000 since announcing his candidacy last fall. He had $208,000 left in his treasury on March 31.

Gilmore is opposed for the Republican nomination by Del. Bob Marshall of Prince William County. The GOP will choose its nominee at a state convention in Richmond on May 30-31.

Marshall reported raising almost $52,000 since entering the race in January and had about a $19,000 balance in his account at the end of March.

The two Republicans have raised much less money than former Gov. Mark Warner, who is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Warner, who released his FEC statement last week, raised $2.5 million during the first quarter of the year. Since announcing his candidacy last September, Warner has reaped $6.3 million and had an unspent balance of $4.4 million at the end of March.

Both Gilmore and Marshall have downplayed their financial disadvantages to Warner. (from here)

So what is Gilmore doing? At the 60th Annual Shad Planking, Gilmore pretended Marshall does not exist.

Gilmore completely ignored Marshall during his speech, despite the fact that Republicans will choose between the two at a state convention at the end of May. It’s clear that Gilmore is looking ahead to November. His scant campaign signs were topped with banners touting GOP presidential nominee John McCain and he repeatedly referred to the “Obama-Clinton-Warner ticket” to link Warner with the two Democrats vying for the party’s mantle. (from here)

Gilmore wants us to join him in his pretense Marshall does not exist. That, however, would be foolish. Marshall is an accomplished party stalwart. He has not attacked Gilmore personally nor has he done anything that would weaken Gilmore in a campaign against Warner. There is in fact every reason to believe that a debate between the two would be about issues and benefit whoever wins the Republican Party’s nomination. Such a debate would give both men the opportunity to publicize their differences with Warner and increase the status of the Republican Party’s nominee. Instead of continuing his absurd pretense that he does not have any competition, Gilmore needs to seize the opportunity that this competition can provide him.

Other Views

The right-wing liberal expresses serious doubts about the Gilmore’s campaign’s protestations of inevitable victory (here).

Daniel McCarthy of The American Conservative is rooting for Marshall (here).

Below The Beltway observes Marshall is behind in fundraising (here). Have YOU contributed to Bob Marshall’s campaign yet?

The Family Foundation Blog has some odd observations (here).

Bearing Drift has a Podcast featuring Bob Marshall (see here).

The Mason Conservative just might vote for Marshall (see here).