Anyone who follows politics knows Senator Joe Biden is running for president. So, quite naturally, Biden is tempted to give the impression that anything President Bush can do, a President Biden could do better. Biden has obviously succumbed to that temptation. The most recent manifestation of Biden’s temptation appeared in the Sunday Washington Post as a guest column (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/17/AR2006111701590.html).
Biden called for the Baker-Hamilton commission to adopt his plan which he has laid out in somewhat more detail on his own web site (http://www.planforiraq.com/). Like most of the Democrat’s plans for Iraq, Biden’s plan is based upon the hard work that others of have already done, the notion that the USA can and should order Iraq about, and wishful thinking. Biden’s plan has five major points.
1. Establish One Iraq, with Three Regions
Biden proposes to divide Iraq into three largely autonomous regions – Shiite, Sunni and Kurd. Supposedly this is okay because it would be consistent with Iraq’s constitution (the hard work done by others). What Biden does not explain is how it is consistent with Iraq’s constitution for the USA to make this happen. If we want the Iraqis to take their own constitution seriously, the Iraqis are going to have to work out for themselves how they want their constitution to work in practice.
2. Share Oil Revenues
With another wave of his magic wand, Biden says the Sunnis should be guaranteed 20 percent of the oil revenues. This part of Biden’s plan depends upon empowering the central government to distribute oil revenues. However, at the same time Biden would disempower the central government by ordering it about.
3. Convene International Conference, Enforce Regional Non-Aggression Pact
This step is yet another attempt to involve the international community in settling the Iraq’s problems. What is amazing is the belief that this step has not yet already been tried.
There is little reason to believe the international community can and will come together to aid a democratic Iraq. How often has the international community worked for the sake of a farsighted solution at the expense of immediate profits? Because it upset the status quo, the international community approved invasion of Iraq only grudgingly. Using his oil revenues through the scandal-plagued oil for food program, Hussein succeeded in buying off much of the international community.
The USA and Britain, however, had good reasons for rejecting the status quo. For all practical purposes, the USA was still at war with Iraq. We were enforcing no-fly zones and an embargo. These are acts of war. Because of these acts of war, Hussein had tried to assassinate his adversary in the first Persian Gulf War, former President Bush. After the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, President George W. Bush had every reason to believe Hussein could and would provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorists. Unfortunately, Bush could not and still cannot depend upon the international community to defend America.
4. Responsibly Drawdown US Troops
This is the part of Biden’s plan where he introduces the cut and run. By the end of 2007, we are suppose to be down to 20,000 troops. While we are cutting and running, we are suppose divide up Iraq, equability split up its oil revenues and convince Iraq’s neighbors that a stable Iraq is in their best interest.
Let’s for a minute consider Iraq’s neighbors: Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
- While Turkey is a relatively democratic state, the Turkish government has little interest in a Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. That is because Turkey’s own Kurds would love to have the same thing.
- Iran is a theocratic state that abhors the type of government we are trying to set up in Iraq. What interest do they have in helping us?
- Syria is run by the same Bathist party we overthrew in Iraq. What possible interest would they have in establishing a successful democracy in Iraq?
- Saudi Arabia is monarchical regime. Such regimes have no love for democracy. Moreover, the primary version of Islam practiced in Saudi Arabia teaches beliefs near and dear to the heart of the Al Qaeda terrorists. At best, all we can hope from Saudi Arabia is that it will stay out of the way.
5. Increase Reconstruction Assistance and Create a Jobs Program
Do Democrats think the solution for every problem is a welfare program? When you give people money, do they suddenly stop doing bad things? Such a presumption is unmitigated BS, but Biden’s plan depends upon it. What is most pathetic about the whole thing is that he expects the international community to pay for his welfare program. We will “insist that other countries take the lead in funding reconstruction by making good on old commitments and providing new ones — especially the oil-rich Arab Gulf countries.” Because we have cut and run, the international community is suppose to take us more seriously?
Summary Observation
Biden’s plan is a plan for failure. When we are withdrawing from Iraq, why should we believe the international community will suddenly come to our side? When we are leaving Iraq, why should we believe we will have more influence with the Iraqi government? When we are leaving Iraq, why should Iraq’s neighbors become more peaceful? Yet Biden’s plan clearly depends on these assumptions.
What the Democrats distrust about Bush’s plan is that it depends upon the belief that the Iraqis will fight to preserve their democracy. From the perspective of the Democrats, that is not even a plan. The Democrats do not believe the Iraqi people can run their own democracy. Biden’s plan shows that bias.
That is why democracy in Iraq has no value to the Democrats. That is why Biden’s plan begins with the insistence that we must order the Iraqis about. That is why adoption of Biden’s plan would sound the death knell for Iraqi democracy. Even before we will have withdrawn our troops, we would have sown the seeds of its defeat.
“Stay the Course” is not a plan, and planting the seed of democracy in the middle east was a ruse. IT THE OIL STUPID!
There is no plan that will achieve democracy in Iraq. Read THE SHIA REVIVAL by Dr. Nasr of the CFR if you truly want to understand the relationships between Shia and Sunni and the countries in the middle east.
We’ll be luck if we can leave Iraq and the middle east in general in stable condition after the cock fight we’ve started.
THINK!
Anonymous, thank you for your comment.
In Iraq, we deliberately set about creating a democracy, and we have found it hard and difficult work. Yet each step of the way, we have succeeded. The news media has virtually ignored those successes and concentrated instead on the calamity. Even in the best of worlds, why should we have expected anything different?
Will the people of Iraq succeed in ruling themselves, or will they instead of being ruled by hate filled madmen? I do not know. Just because you read a book you think you know answer. I doubt that you do.
The only way we hear anything close to the real story about Iraq is from our people on the ground. What do our troops think? In Vietnam, our soldiers became disheartened. Has that happened to our soldiers in Iraq? In spite of the fact our military is undersized for this task, have our soldiers abandoned the mission or have we?
Which news media are you speaking of? Cause I’m pretty sure you’re just repeating what your favorite neo-con talking heads are saying and don’t really spend much time listening to anyone else or doing any of your own research, unless it backs up your predetermined views.
You might try reading a book that doesn’t involve a bunch of bogus propaganda for a change.
Mark my words, Syria and Lebanon are at each other’s throats and on the verge of war. Bush’s ill-conceived war has expedientially empowered the Shia countries of Iran and Syria and left Iraq to be gobbled up by them. The Sunni countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuit, and Jordan, will have to get involved and try to stop the spread or they will not survive.
There are profound differences between Shia and Sunni, and they started slaughtering each other pretty much the day Mohammed died. Most Shia martars were murdered by Sunnis. But two of the fundamental differences we need to be concerned about are: 1) Shias believe that the supreme political leader and the supreme religious leader MUST be the same person – Sunni’s do not; and 2) Shias believe it is their prophesied destiny to spread their religion, by the sword if necessary, throughout the middle east and throughout the world. Therefore, Democracy is not an option in Iraq.
BTW, bin Laden and Saddam ARE SUNNIs.
The point is that we never should have invaded Iraq, our reasoning was bogus, and now hundreds of thousands are dead, whether they died by our actions or from killing each other off, they’re no less dead. We set off this fire storm, and someone has to be “accountable” (you conservatives like that word a lot – how about owning up to it).
The world is angry as hell and so are most Americans, as evidenced by the recent elections. This is a mistake of epic proportions that is spreading like wildfire throughout the middle east, the global consequences of which are beyond our ability to fully comprehend. If the oil stops flowing, life as we know it on the 3rd rock ENDS! We all get to become part of some “Waterworld” scifi disaster movie.
Thanks George!
(Perhaps it would help if you knew what you were talking about.)
Anonymous, you speak as if this book does not involve propaganda. That is like saying the author does not have his own biases, but from what you yourself have said, it is quite clear that this book does have a distinct bias. Having a bias is nothing in and of itself of which to be ashamed. What we should be ashamed of is when we do not acknowledge our biases.
When we, the people of the United States, not just President Bush, made the decision to invade Iraq, there were consequences. Certain decisions are not easily undone. We cannot take back the past; the past is not ours to do over again. We cannot merely leave Iraq. If we “choose” to leave, we will know and the enemy will know that we have been driven out. That is when the wildfire of which you spoke will begin to spread.
Right now we are dealing with a few tens of thousands of terrorists in Iraq. If we are driven out, how many will there be?
You speak as if there is no possible way to resolve the conflict between the Shia and the Sunni. However, the conflict between the Shia and the Sunni is hardly unique. The various peoples that make up the human race have been fighting with each other throughout recorded history. Whether our intervention in Iraq can help to resolve the conflict between the Shia and the Sunni is anyone’s guess. What is at issue is whether we have any choice except to try?
As technology has progressed, our weapons have become ever more dangerous. While terrorism has always been a problem, the tools that terrorists might use have never been so potent. How do we deal with this new threat? That we are still learning.
The Bush administration chose to follow an old axiom. The best defense is a good offense. To operate effectively, even terrorists need a safe harbor. If nothing else, terrorists need a sponsor. So the Bush administration decided to eliminate any safe harbor or sponsor that Al Qaeda might seek. That included neutralizing Iraq. Thus Hussein was given a choice.
Given the difficulty that terrorists have had in striking the American homeland since September 11, 2001, the basic strategy adopted by the Bush administration appears to be sound. Perhaps the strategy has worked too well. Each day we have to make the choice of following through on our decision to invade Iraq, and each day we forget a little more why we invaded in the first place. Sooner or latter, I fear we will be reminded.
I’m not merely using this one book as a reference but the dozens of other experts I’ve heard speak on this subject, the news reports, etc. By now, the problems between Shias an Sunnis are common knowledge, as it should have been BEFORE we invaded Iraq for no reason.
This exchange is perfect example of the futility of trying to have a reasonable exchange with someone who has already made up his mind and cannot process new information or ideas, or to be specific – a neocon.
Good luck with that.
–anonymous
If you want to solve a problem, it helps to focus on the solution. It does no good to ignore a problem or to give up merely because the problem exists.
Of course we knew about the rivalry between the Sunni and the Shia before we invaded. That is why, for example, we had the no-fly zones. We could see Saddam Hussein using this rivalry to divide and rule Iraq. The Sunni provided Hussein his power base. Hussein’s success in dominating of the Kurds and the Shia gave the Sunni a reason to back him.
Hussein nurtured and fed the hatreds between the peoples of Iraq. Al Qaeda, Syria, and Iran feed these hatreds still.
Unfortunately, it seems to be easier to hate one’s fellow man than to love him – just as it is easier to destroy than to build. We all know that. That is why it will require great courage and fortitude from us all to bring peace to Iraq.